Changing Markets – Issue #6: The Affordability Illusion Is Breaking

Posted by Tim Bray on April 3rd, 2026

Changing Markets – Issue #6

The Affordability Illusion Is Breaking

For years, the market has been held together by belief. Now the numbers are starting to tell a different story.

For the past few years, the housing market has operated on a simple assumption: that buyers would find a way to make the numbers work.

Higher prices were justified by low rates. Higher rates were justified by future refinancing. Tight supply was expected to support everything.

But today, that foundation is beginning to shift.

Not all at once. Not dramatically. But in ways that are becoming harder to ignore.

The reality is this: affordability hasn’t just tightened — it’s become stretched to a point where the math is no longer working the way…

210 Views, 0 Comments

Changing Markets – Issue #5: The Affordability Illusion

Posted by Tim Bray on March 25th, 2026

Changing Markets – Issue #5: The Affordability Illusion

Affordability hasn’t disappeared — it’s been redefined.

If a buyer can make the monthly payment, does that mean the home is truly affordable?

That is the story many people want to believe.

In today’s market, buyers are constantly being told to focus on the monthly number. Lower the rate. Use a buydown. Stretch a little further. Find a way to make the payment work.

But affordability is not defined by whether a buyer can make the payment today. It is defined by whether that payment is sustainable over time, while still leaving enough room to handle the realities of ownership and the pressures of everyday life.

The Gap No One Wants to Look At

Over the past several years, home…

90 Views, 1 Comments

The Real Story Behind Today’s Housing Prices

Posted by Tim Bray on February 4th, 2026

The Housing Market Isn’t Expensive — It’s Uneven

Prices feel high.
Rates are higher.
Homes aren’t moving the way they did a few years ago.

So the conclusion feels obvious:

The market must be overpriced.

That conclusion is understandable — and still incomplete.

Because there is no single housing market.

There are hundreds of micro-markets, shaped by town, neighborhood, and price range. And what’s happening right now has far less to do with “the market” than it does with where a property sits within its local affordability structure.

Median prices don’t measure affordability

When people hear that the median home price in Connecticut is around $460,000, or that Rhode Island is near $480,000, the reaction is predictable:

…

136 Views, 0 Comments