Rising Tide of Red Signs: Navigating Commercial Real Estate's Rough Waters
Posted by Tim Bray on
Alarm bells are ringing nationwide due to concerns about commercial loan defaults. Unlike residential loans, commercial loans typically operate on a non-recourse basis, allowing borrowers to simply return the keys to the bank if they can't meet their obligations. These loans usually reset every 3-5 years, and many that originated around 2018 are approaching this critical period. The prevailing concern is that numerous commercial properties won't produce sufficient cash flow, leading to a wave of defaults and property surrenders.
Thanks to data from my former company, CoStar Group, I am well-positioned to monitor the situation. Across the country, there are 1,661 properties that are either in default, bank-owned, or undergoing the foreclosure…
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