I Was Wrong About Housing Bubbles. Here's What Changed.

Posted by Tim Bray on June 7th, 2026

Market Analysis • A Correction

Why I Changed My Mind About Housing Bubbles

Revisiting an old theory in light of what the pandemic — and our own local data — taught us about prices, value, and the dollar itself.

By Tim Bray  •  Broker / Owner  •  Seaport Real Estate Services

Editor’s Note

This article revisits and corrects an earlier piece published on this blog — “Housing Bubbles & Market Crashes: The Holy Grail,” originally written by Barry Neilsen and modified by Tim Bray. The years since have tested its central claim, and I’d rather correct the record openly than let an old argument stand unchallenged.

Years ago, I published a piece on this blog about housing bubbles, market crashes, and the idea of mean reversion —…

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Seaport Multifamily Brief — Issue #4 Two Weeks, Two Stories: Rhode Island Accelerates While Connecticut Pauses

Posted by Tim Bray on April 2nd, 2026

Seaport Multifamily Brief — Issue #4

Two Weeks, Two Stories

Rhode Island Accelerates While Connecticut Pauses

Powered by CoStar Data and Seaport Due Diligence

In just the past two weeks, coastal multifamily activity told two very different stories. While New London and Middlesex Counties remained relatively quiet, Newport and Washington Counties showed noticeably stronger velocity, deeper buyer confidence, and far more visible transaction movement.

Executive Summary

Sometimes the market speaks loudly. Sometimes it whispers. Over this two-week period, Rhode Island’s coastal multifamily markets spoke clearly. Connecticut’s coastal markets, by comparison, were quieter and more cautious.

That does not mean…

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The 10-Year Treasury Hits 4.8%: What This Means for Real Estate

Posted by Tim Bray on January 17th, 2025

The 10-Year Treasury Hits 4.8%: What This Means for Real Estate

As the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.8%, the ripple effects are being felt across the real estate market, impacting buyers, sellers, and investors. Here are my thoughts on what this shift means and how we can respond to this evolving environment.

Higher Treasury Yields and Borrowing Costs

Treasury yields often set the tone for other interest rates, including mortgages. As yields rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, directly affecting affordability for homebuyers.

For homebuyers, these higher mortgage rates can significantly alter the landscape. Monthly payments increase, forcing many to either reconsider their budgets or put off purchasing altogether. This reduced…

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The Two Faces of Commercial Real Estate

Posted by Tim Bray on April 11th, 2023

The commercial real estate market operates within two distinct segments: off-market and on-market transactions. Each segment has its unique characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages, catering to different types of investors and property owners.

Off-market transactions refer to commercial properties that are bought and sold without being publicly advertised or listed on popular real estate websites like Crexi and Loopnet. These deals often occur through personal connections, word of mouth, or specialized brokers with extensive industry networks. Off-market properties may exchange hands before the general public becomes aware of their availability, offering several advantages: 

Less competition: Off-market transactions can allow…

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